In his Newsweek column for September 19, 1966, the economist Paul Samuelson lamented that when it comes to predicting Gross National Product, “commentators quote economic studies alleging that market downturns predicted four out of the last five recessions. That is an understatement. Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions!
— Michael Shermer: Wrong Again: Why Experts’ Predictions Fail, Especially About the Future
